Having ended last season in a serious slump after beginning the campaign so quickly to allay any relegation concerns, Werder Bremen could be in for a tougher campaign having sold their star striker Fullkrug to Dortmund.
Hoffenheim, on the other hand, appear to be a more serious proposition under Hoeness despite losing to BVB in their last match, and we can envisage the offensive combination of Kramaric and Weghorst helping the visitors to a marginal victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 46.82%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 30.73% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.61%) and 0-2 (6.15%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 2-1 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hoffenheim would win this match.
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