Despite carrying poor form into this match, HJK Helsinki's experience at this level could be telling in this first leg. The visitors will relish this opportunity, and while securing a win may be too much of an ask in Finland, we fancy that they will give an excellent account of themselves and will get on the scoresheet, which will set up the second leg very nicely.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 58.14%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Larne had a probability of 19.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.27%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.7%), while for a Larne win it was 0-1 (5.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for HJK Helsinki in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for HJK Helsinki.
0.04) 
-0.04) 
