As they did against Braga in the playoff round, Qarabag will look to relish their underdog status against Leverkusen and require another resolute defensive performance, similar to their last home outing with Die Werkself earlier this season, if they wish to keep the tie alive heading into the second leg.
However, stopping the juggernaut that is Leverkusen will be a tall order for the Azerbaijani hosts, and Alonso's side should ultimately have few problems putting themselves in a strong position to progress beyond the last 16.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 60.42%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 18.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.14%) and 0-1 (8.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for a Qarabag FK win it was 2-1 (5.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
-0.23) 
0.37) 
