Lecce welcome fellow strugglers Sampdoria to Stadio Via Del Mare on Wednesday evening in a huge clash at the bottom of Serie A.
The hosts are in the bottom three after losing both matches since returning to action, although they are only one point behind their equally out-of-form opponents.
Match preview
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Lecce appeared to have turned a corner in their battle to avoid a drop when winning three games on the spin in February, but they have lost four out of four since then.
That run includes a 7-2 thrashing at the hands of high-scoring Atalanta BC immediately before the three-month hiatus when Duvan Zapata helped himself to a hat-trick.
The Giallorossi have shipped 19 goals in those four matches. At home, they have conceded 11 goals in their last two - only Foggia in 1992 have let in more in back-to-back games.
It is clear what area Fabio Liverani needs to work on with his players, then, ahead of what is a truly massive game for Lecce.
Sampdoria have themselves lost three in a row, all by the same 2-1 scoreline, since returning to action earlier this month.
The Blucerchiati spent the first few months of the season in the relegation zone and are at serious risk of dropping back into the bottom three should they lose on Wednesday.
Only Genoa sit between Lecce and 16th-place Sampdoria, rightly seeing this contest labelled as a relegation six-pointer.
The good news for Sampdoria is that they are unbeaten away to Lecce since 1991, with the hosts picking up just one point in their last seven home meetings.
That includes a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture eight months ago - a result that would just about suit Claudio Ranieri's men more if it was to be repeated on Wednesday.
Sampdoria have the tougher of the remaining games, however, with matches against Atalanta, Juventus and Milan to come, so they will be keen to distance themselves from the dropzone.
Lecce's Serie A form: WWLLLL
Sampdoria's Serie A form: WLWLLL
Team News
Lecce are without defender Fabio Lucioni for this massive showdown following his dismissal 30 minutes into the 4-0 loss to Juventus on Friday.
Luca Rossettini was brought on at half time in that defeat to the champions and is likely to partner Giulio Donati and Nehuen Paz in a five-man defence against Sampdoria.
Midfielder Marco Mancosu has been directly involved in three of Lecce's last five home goals, scoring two and assisting one.
As for the visitors, experienced attacker Fabio Quagliarella remains sidelined in what is a big blow to their survival hopes.
Manolo Gabbiadini and Antonino La Gumina led to line in the 2-1 loss to Bologna last time out and that is expected to remain the case for this one.
Wednesday's match will be a special occasion for Sampdoria midfielder Andrea Bertolacci, having played 37 games and scored six goals in Serie A for Lecce between 2010 and 2012.
Lecce possible starting lineup:
Gabriel; Rispoli, Donati, Rossettini, Paz, Vera; Tachtsidis, Petriccione, Mancosu; Shakhov, Falco
Sampdoria possible starting lineup:
Audero; Bereszynski, Tonelli, Colley, Murru; Dapaoli, Vieira, Ekdal, Linetty; Gumina, Gabbiadini
We say: Lecce 2-2 Sampdoria
Lecce have lost their last four Serie A games by an aggregate scoreline of 19-3. They have not lost five in a row since 2005 and, given the form of opponents Sampdoria, we can see them at least ending that losing run on Wednesday.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sampdoria win with a probability of 40.42%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 35.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sampdoria win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.12%) and 0-2 (5.74%). The likeliest Lecce win was 2-1 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Sampdoria in this match.
