Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 50.25%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 25.29% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.57%) and 0-2 (8.73%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-0 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.
Result | ||
Toulouse | Draw | Lyon |
25.29% ( 0.24) | 24.47% ( 0.1) | 50.25% ( -0.33) |
Both teams to score 53.78% ( -0.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.73% ( -0.21) | 48.28% ( 0.21) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.58% ( -0.19) | 70.42% ( 0.2) |
Toulouse Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.58% ( 0.08) | 33.42% ( -0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.96% ( 0.09) | 70.05% ( -0.09) |
Lyon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.77% ( -0.21) | 19.23% ( 0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.06% ( -0.36) | 50.94% ( 0.36) |
Score Analysis |
Toulouse | Draw | Lyon |
1-0 @ 7.05% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 6.37% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 3.86% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 2.33% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.92% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.41% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.36% Total : 25.29% | 1-1 @ 11.61% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.43% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.25% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.47% | 0-1 @ 10.59% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 9.57% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 8.73% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 5.26% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 4.8% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 2.17% ( -0.03) 0-4 @ 1.98% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.19% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.07% Total : 50.24% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 34 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 81 | 33 | 48 | 76 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 42 | 26 | 67 |
3 | Brest | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 53 | 34 | 19 | 61 |
4 | Lille | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 52 | 34 | 18 | 59 |
5 | Nice | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 55 |
6 | Lyon | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 53 |
7 | Lens | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 45 | 37 | 8 | 51 |
8 | Marseille | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 50 |
9 | Reims | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 47 |
10 | Rennes | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 46 |
11 | Toulouse | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 43 |
12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 41 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 39 |
14 | NantesNantes | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 30 | 55 | -25 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 35 | 58 | -23 | 29 |
17 | Lorient | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 43 | 66 | -23 | 29 |
R | Clermont | 34 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |