Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 59.37%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Granada had a probability of 18.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.28%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.42%), while for a Granada win it was 0-1 (5.47%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
Result | ||
Villarreal | Draw | Granada |
59.37% ( -0.26) | 21.98% ( 0.14) | 18.65% ( 0.13) |
Both teams to score 52.7% ( -0.22) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.72% ( -0.41) | 45.28% ( 0.41) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.38% ( -0.39) | 67.62% ( 0.39) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.12% ( -0.22) | 14.88% ( 0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.78% ( -0.42) | 43.22% ( 0.42) |
Granada Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.91% ( -0.1) | 38.09% ( 0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.14% ( -0.1) | 74.86% ( 0.1) |
Score Analysis |
Villarreal | Draw | Granada |
1-0 @ 10.79% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 10.28% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.93% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.53% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 6.31% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 3.11% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 3.04% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 3% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.45% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 1.19% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.15% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.58% Total : 59.36% | 1-1 @ 10.42% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 5.67% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 4.79% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 21.98% | 0-1 @ 5.47% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 5.03% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 2.64% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 1.62% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.35% Total : 18.65% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 36 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 83 | 22 | 61 | 93 |
2 | Barcelona | 36 | 24 | 7 | 5 | 74 | 43 | 31 | 79 |
3 | GironaGirona | 36 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 75 | 45 | 30 | 75 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 36 | 23 | 4 | 9 | 67 | 39 | 28 | 73 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 36 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 62 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 36 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 57 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 36 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 48 | 43 | 5 | 56 |
8 | Villarreal | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 60 | 60 | 0 | 51 |
9 | Valencia | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 48 |
10 | AlavesAlaves | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 45 |
11 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 43 |
12 | Sevilla | 36 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 41 |
13 | Osasuna | 36 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 40 | 54 | -14 | 41 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 36 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 38 |
15 | Rayo Vallecano | 36 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 38 |
16 | Celta Vigo | 36 | 9 | 10 | 17 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 37 |
17 | Mallorca | 36 | 7 | 15 | 14 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 36 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 36 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 32 |
R | Granada | 36 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 37 | 70 | -33 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 36 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 35 | 72 | -37 | 17 |
> La Liga Full Table |