Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 39.63%. A win for Almeria had a probability of 35.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.62%) and 0-2 (6.31%). The likeliest Almeria win was 2-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Villarreal in this match.
Result | ||
Almeria | Draw | Villarreal |
35.28% ( -1.13) | 25.08% ( 0.19) | 39.63% ( 0.94) |
Both teams to score 57.3% ( -0.81) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.82% ( -0.98) | 46.17% ( 0.98) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.53% ( -0.93) | 68.47% ( 0.93) |
Almeria Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.53% ( -1.09) | 25.46% ( 1.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.71% ( -1.51) | 60.29% ( 1.51) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.87% ( 0.04) | 23.12% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.01% ( 0.06) | 56.98% ( -0.07) |
Score Analysis |
Almeria | Draw | Villarreal |
2-1 @ 8.07% ( -0.16) 1-0 @ 8.05% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 5.51% ( -0.12) 3-1 @ 3.68% ( -0.19) 3-2 @ 2.69% ( -0.14) 3-0 @ 2.51% ( -0.14) 4-1 @ 1.26% ( -0.11) 4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.59% Total : 35.28% | 1-1 @ 11.79% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 5.89% ( 0.24) 3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.08% | 1-2 @ 8.64% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 8.62% ( 0.36) 0-2 @ 6.31% ( 0.27) 1-3 @ 4.22% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 3.08% ( 0.14) 2-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 1.54% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.13% ( 0.05) 2-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.16% Total : 39.63% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 36 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 83 | 22 | 61 | 93 |
2 | Barcelona | 36 | 24 | 7 | 5 | 74 | 43 | 31 | 79 |
3 | GironaGirona | 36 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 75 | 45 | 30 | 75 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 36 | 23 | 4 | 9 | 67 | 39 | 28 | 73 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 36 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 62 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 36 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 57 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 36 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 48 | 43 | 5 | 56 |
8 | Villarreal | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 60 | 60 | 0 | 51 |
9 | Valencia | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 48 |
10 | AlavesAlaves | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 45 |
11 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 43 |
12 | Sevilla | 36 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 41 |
13 | Osasuna | 36 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 40 | 54 | -14 | 41 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 36 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 38 |
15 | Rayo Vallecano | 36 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 38 |
16 | Celta Vigo | 36 | 9 | 10 | 17 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 37 |
17 | Mallorca | 36 | 7 | 15 | 14 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 36 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 36 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 32 |
R | Granada | 36 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 37 | 70 | -33 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 36 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 35 | 72 | -37 | 17 |
> La Liga Full Table |